Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 11.444242 14.059406 16.981245 20.465458 24.484046 28.950429 34.265843
2025-12-14 7.741272 11.071373 15.220669 20.671991 27.539545 35.795979 46.354824
2025-12-21 5.288121 8.636572 13.211546 19.708214 28.465249 39.619128 54.630301
2025-12-28 4.148131 7.576842 12.628852 20.254852 31.074456 45.452682 65.523416
2026-01-04 3.264099 6.638882 11.975628 20.488534 33.121443 50.530115 75.587480
2026-01-11 2.641437 5.948454 11.530899 20.886235 35.323332 55.843954 86.149561
2026-01-18 2.196041 5.446233 11.274193 21.483469 37.788572 61.590851 97.518540
2026-01-25 1.703064 4.714330 10.488487 21.098879 38.669571 65.038736 105.739693
2026-02-01 1.394936 4.270934 10.126399 21.342383 40.496563 69.914790 116.167138
2026-02-08 1.079217 3.709172 9.434237 20.906004 41.148859 73.001433 124.046410
2026-02-15 0.813629 3.172083 8.682788 20.248211 41.339062 75.331240 130.831969
2026-02-22 0.691872 2.974893 8.602274 20.821602 43.640622 81.051581 142.944329
2026-03-01 0.517207 2.565826 8.012677 20.408662 44.314258 84.411397 151.915116
2026-03-08 0.409481 2.319045 7.751695 20.629843 46.154601 89.795789 164.338589
2026-03-15 0.279308 1.906632 6.980415 19.668551 45.716755 91.346556 170.714820
2026-03-22 0.228428 1.777380 6.913625 20.214395 48.142229 97.820624 185.219615
2026-03-29 0.178882 1.617064 6.721703 20.447717 49.965531 103.324589 198.318909
2026-04-05 0.142810 1.494599 6.609150 20.844801 52.126355 109.493440 212.703756
2026-04-12 0.117031 1.407427 6.583266 21.441113 54.717179 116.514495 228.716409
2026-04-19 0.082205 1.219409 6.181341 21.057116 55.263010 119.892151 238.705440
2026-04-26 0.062977 1.116566 6.036836 21.300245 57.120984 125.701686 252.979515
2026-05-03 0.042298 0.961311 5.654325 20.864540 57.491609 128.783690 262.658210
2026-05-10 0.026302 0.807241 5.216721 20.207768 57.317099 130.822507 270.569684